OIL AND GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET IN THE PERIOD OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Authors

:

https://doi.org/10.9744/jmk.23.2.129-137

Keywords:

Oil price, gold price, volatility, COVID-19, GARCH

Abstract

The study aimed to analyze the effects of oil and gold price volatility on stock returns in Indonesia by comparing the period before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The study took secondary data from the daily closing prices of oil (Brent and WTI), gold, and JCI. The analysis technique used was GARCH (1,1). The study found that oil and gold price volatility did not affect stock returns in the two periods. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on financial markets had yielded uncertain results. This finding supported the concept of gold as a safe haven during the financial crisis. The limitations in the study were focusing on the Indonesian capital market, and future research can compare the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on developing countries with developed countries.

Author Biography

Robiyanto Robiyanto, Satya Wacana Christian University

References

Aditya, Sinaga, B. M., & Maulana, A. (2018). Pe-ngaruh indeks bursa luar negeri, indikator makroekonomi dan krisis ekonomi global terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan di Indonesia. Jurnal Aplikasi Manajemen dan Bisnis, 4(2), 284–295. https://doi.org/10.17358/jabm.4.2.284.

Alali, M. S. (2020). Safe haven sssets: Are they still safe during COVID-19 pandemic period? European Journal of Economic and Financial Research, 4(1), 91–98. https://doi. org/10.5281/ zenodo.3777255

Ali, R., Mangla, I. U., Rehman, R. U., Xue, W., Naseem, M. A., & Ahmad, M. I. (2020). Exchange rate, gold price, and stock market nexus: A quantile regression approach. Risks, 8(3), 1–16. https://doi.org/10.3390/risks803 0086

Arfaoui, M., & Ben Rejeb, A. (2017). Oil, gold, US dollar and stock market interdependencies: A global analytical insight. European Journal of Management and Business Economics, 26(3), 278–293. https://doi.org/10.1108/EJMBE-10-2017-016

Bampinas, G., & Panagiotidis, T. (2015). Are gold and silver a hedge against inflation? A two century perspective. International Review of Financial Analysis, 41, 267–276. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.irfa.2015.02.007

Benedetto, F., Mastroeni, L., Quaresima, G., & Vellucci, P. (2020). Does OVX affect WTI and Brent oil spot variance? Evidence from an entropy analysis. Energy Economics, 89, 104815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.202 0.104815

Bhuyan, A. K., & Dash, A. K. (2018). A dynamic causality analysis between gold price movements and stock market returns: Evidence from India. Journal of Management Research and Analysis, 5(2), 117–124. https://doi. org/10.18231/2394-2770.2018.0019

Bollerslev, T. (1986). Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Journal of Eco-nometrics, 31, 307–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/ 0304-4076(86)90063-1.

Cevik, N. K., Cevik, E. I., & Dibooglu, S. (2020). Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Policy Modeling, 42(3), 597–614. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2020.01.006

Contuk, F. Y., Burucu, H., & Gungor, B. (2013). Effect of gold price volatility on stock returns: Example of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 5(1), 119–140. Retrieved from https://sobiad.org/ ijefs-vol-5-issue-1-2-2013/

Gokmenoglu, K. K., & Fazlollahi, N. (2015). The interactions among gold, oil, and stock market: Evidence from S & P 500. Procedia Eco-nomics and Finance, 25(15), 478–488. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00760-1

Hersugondo, H., Robiyanto, R., Wahyudi, S., & Muharam, H. (2015). The world oil price movements and stock returns in several southeast Asia’s capital markets. International Journal of Applied Business and Economic Research, 13(September), 527–534. Retrieved from https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract-id=2663031

Hoang, T. H. V., Lahiani, A., & Heller, D. (2016). Is gold a hedge against inflation? New evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach. Economic Modelling, 54, 54–66. https://doi. org/10.1016/ j.econmod.2015.12.013

Hongsakulvasu, N., & Liammukda, A. (2020). The riskreturn relationship in crude oil markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from time-varying coefficient GARCH-in-mean model. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(10), 63–71. https:// doi.org/10.13106/ .2020.vol7.no10.063

Ibrahim, M. H., & Baharom, A. H. (2011). The role of gold in financial investment: A Malaysian perspective. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 45(4), 227–238. Retrieved from http://www.ecocyb. ase.ro/nr4

Ichev, R., & Marinč, M. (2018). Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak. International Review of Financial Analysis, 56, 153–166. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j.irfa.2017.12.004

Igbinova, I. M., & Igbinova, E. L. (2019). Oil price volatility and stock market returns in an emerging economy: Evidence from Nigeria. Sriwijaya International Journal of Dynamic Economies and Business, 3(3), 193–206. https://doi.org/10. 29259/sijdeb.v3i3.193-20 6

Istamar, Sarfiah, S. N., & Rusmijiati. (2019). Analisis pengaruh harga minyak dunia, harga emas, dan nilai kurs rupiah terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia tahun 1998–2018. Dinamic: Directory Journal of Economic, 1, 433–442.

Kumar, A., & Sahadudheen, I. (2015). Understanding the nexus between oil and gold. Resources Policy, 46, 85–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resour-pol.2015.09.003

Luo, X., & Qin, S. (2016). Oil price uncertainty and chinese stock returns: New evidence from the oil volatility index. Finance Research Letters, 20, 29–34. https://doi.org/10.10 16/j.frl.2016.08.005

Maghyereh, A. (2004). Oil Price Shocks and Emerging stock markets: A generalized VAR approach. International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 1, 27–40. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/ijaeqs/ v1y200 4i1_8.html

Noor, M. H., & Dutta, A. (2017). On the relationship between oil and equity markets: Evidence from South Asia. International Journal of Managerial Finance, 13(3), 287–303. https://doi.org/10.1108/ IJMF-04-2016-0064

Posedel, P. (2005). Properties and estimation of GARCH (1,1) model. Metodoloski Zvezk, 2 (2), 244–257. Retrieved from http://mrvar. fdv.uni-lj.si/pub/mz/mz2.1/posedel.pdf

Putra, A. R., & Robiyanto, R. (2019). The effect of commodity price changes and USD/IDR exchange rate on Indonesian mining companies’ stock return. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 23(1), 97–108. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp. v23i1.2084

Raza, N., Jawad, S., Shahzad, H., Kumar, A., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Asymmetric impact of gold, oil prices and their volatilities on stock prices of emerging markets. Resources Policy, 49, 290–301. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2016. 06.011

Robiyanto, R. (2017). Month of the year effect pada pasar obligasi di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis, 20(2), 291–302. https://doi. org/10.24914/ jeb.v20i2.1093

------- (2018a). Gold vs bonds: What is the safe haven for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital market? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 20(3), 277–302. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb. 27775

------- (2018b). The dynamic correlation between ASEAN-5 stock markets and world oil prices. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 22 (2), 198–210. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp .v22i2.1688

------- (2018c). The effect of gold price changes, USD/IDR exchange rate changes and Bank Indonesia (BI) rate on Jakarta Composite Index (JCI)’s return and Jakarta Islamic Index (JII)’s return. Jurnal Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan, 20(1), 45–52. https://doi.org/10. 9744/jmk.20.1.45

Robiyanto, R., Susanto, Y. A., & Ernayani, R. (2019). Examining the day-of-the-week-effect and the-month-of-the-year-effect in cryptocurrency market. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 23(3), 361–375. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v23i3. 3005

Robiyanto, Wahyudi, S., & Pangestuti, I. R. D. (2017). Testing commodities as save haven and hedging instrument on Asean’s five stock markets. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 10(2), 231–238. https://doi.org/10.2 4843/JEKT.2017.v10.i02.p11

Safitri, Y. D., & Robiyanto, R. (2020). Korelasi dinamis antara pergerakan harga minyak dunia dan indeks harga saham sektoral di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan, 9(3), 188–205. http://dx.doi.org/10. 26418/jebik.v9vi3.42949

Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Batool, S. A. (2019). Impact of gold and oil prices on the stock market in Pakistan. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 25(50), 279–294. https:// doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-04 -2019-0053

Syahri, A., & Robiyanto, R. (2020). The correlation of gold, exchange rate, and stock market on Covid-19 pandemic period. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, 24(3), 350–362. https://doi.org/10.26905/jkdp.v24i3.4621

Yousef, I., & Shehadeh, E. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 on gold price volatility. International Journal of Economics and Business Administration, VIII(4), 353–364. Retrieved from https://www.ijeba.com/journal/592

Zhang, W., & Hamori, S. (2021). Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany. International Review of Financial Analysis, 74 (October 2020), 101702. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.irfa.2021.101702

Zhou, Z., Jiang, Y., Liu, Y., Lin, L., & Liu, Q. (2018). Does international oil volatility have directional predictability for stock returns? Evidence from BRICS countries based on cross-quantilogram analysis. Economic Modelling, 80, 352–382. https://doi.org/10.101 6/j.econmod.2018.11.021

Downloads

Published

2022-01-25

How to Cite

Marwanti, M. M., & Robiyanto, R. (2022). OIL AND GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET IN THE PERIOD OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan, 23(2), 129-137. https://doi.org/10.9744/jmk.23.2.129-137