BOND AS A SAFE HAVEN DURING MARKET CRASH: EXAMINATION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN ASEAN-5

Authors

  • Gabriela Elvina Dwiastuti Siahaan Satya Wacana Christian University, Salatiga, Indonesia
  • Robiyanto Robiyanto Satya Wacana Christian University, Salatiga, Indonesia http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3565-1594

:

https://doi.org/10.9744/jmk.23.1.1-9

Abstract

The central aim of this paper is to examine the effectiveness of corporate bonds and government bonds against the stock price fluctuation in ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). Highlighting an important event of COVID-19, we investigate whether bonds provide protection by utilizing Q-REG method. The noteworthy finding is that bonds consistently act as a hedge for Malaysia and Philippines, while regarded as a diversifier for Indonesia’s capital market. However, this study observed that corporate bonds successfully become a strong safe haven for Thailand and Singapore capital market. Similar result was also found for Singapore government bonds which provides a valuable return during the pandemic of COVID-19.

Author Biography

Robiyanto Robiyanto, Satya Wacana Christian University, Salatiga, Indonesia

References

Baele, L., Bekaert, G., & Koen, I. (2009). The determinants of stock and bond comovements. NBER Working Paper No. 15260. doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004

Baur, D. G., & Lucey, B. M. (2010). Is gold a hedge or a safe haven? An analysis of stocks, bonds and gold. Financial Review, 45(2), 217–229. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6288.2010.00244.x

Baur, D., & Schulze, N. (2005). Coexceedances in financial markets - A quantile regression analysis of contagion. Emerging Markets Review, 6(1), 21–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2004.10.001

Beber, A., & Brandt, M. W. (2006). Resolving macroeconomic uncertainty in stock and bond markets. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.890379

Bianconi, M., Yoshino, J. A., & Machado de Sousa, M. O. (2013). BRIC and the U.S. financial crisis: An empirical investigation of stock and bond markets. Emerging Markets Review, 14(1), 76–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2012.11.002

Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., & Wohar, M. E. (2018). Measuring the response of gold prices to uncertainty: An analysis beyond the mean. Economic Modelling, 75(January), 105–116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.06.010

Burniske, C. (Ark I., & White, A. (Coinbase). (2016). Bitcoin: ringing the bell for a new asset class. White Paper.

Cappiello, L., Engle, R. F., & Sheppard, K. (2006). Asymmetric dynamics in the correlations of global equity and bond returns. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 4(4), 537–572. https://doi.org/10.1093/jjfinec/nbl005

Cheng-Chwee, K. (2008). The essence of hedging: Malaysia and Singapore´ s response to a rising China. Contemporary Southeast Asia, 30(2), 159–185. https://doi.org/10.1355/cs30-2a

Chiang, S.-M., Lin, C.-T., & Huang, C.-M. (2013). The relationships among stocks, bonds and gold : Safe haven, hedge or neither? International Conference on Technology Innovation and Industrial Management, 29–31. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/eee2/d422f5cb7002a4f0bbe8d802f3d9cc6fa9d0.pdf?_ga=2.172194787.1155183825.1589891656-54053930.1588711801

Ciner, C., Gurdgiev, C., & Lucey, B. M. (2013). Hedges and safe havens: An examination of stocks, bonds, gold, oil and exchange rates. International Review of Financial Analysis, 29, 202–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2012.12.001

Connolly, R., Stivers, C., & Sun, L. (2005). Stock market uncertainty and the stock-bond return relation. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(1), 161–194. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0022109000001782

Flavin, T. J., Morley, C. E., & Panopoulou, E. (2014). Identifying safe haven assets for equity investors through an analysis of the stability of shock transmission. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 33, 137–154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.08.001

Giles, C., Greeley, B., & Arnold, M. (2020). Global recession already here, say top economists. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/be732afe-6526-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Greer, R. J. (1997). What is an asset class, anyway? The Journal of Portfolio Management, 2, 86–91. doi: 10.3905/jpm.23.2.86.

Hou, A. J., Khrashchevskyi, I., & Peltomäki, J. (2019). Hedge and safe haven investing with investment styles. Journal of Asset Management, 20(5), 351–364. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41260-019-00127-3

Hussain Shahzad, S. J., Raza, N., Shahbaz, M., & Ali, A. (2017). Dependence of stock markets with gold and bonds under bullish and bearish market states. Resources Policy, 52(March), 308–319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2017.04.006

Jammazi, R., Tiwari, A. K., Ferrer, R., & Moya, P. (2015). Time-varying dependence between stock and government bond returns: International evidence with dynamic copulas. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 33, 74–93. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2015.03.005

Kang, D. C. (2004). The theoretical roots of hierarchy in international relations. Australian Journal of International Affairs, 58(3), 337–352. https://doi.org/10.1080/1035771042000260110

Koenker, R., & Bassett, G. (1978). Regression Quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33–50. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004

Krishnamurthy, A., & Vissing-Jorgensen, A. (2012). The aggregate demand for treasury debt. Journal of Political Economy, 120(2), 233–267. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1086/666526

Krondahl, E., & Lindahl, O. (2012). Perceptual safe havens – A study of gold, oil, palladium, wheat, bonds, USD, and stocks. http://lup.lub.lu.se/luur/download?func=downloadFile&recordOId=2541147&fileOId=2541165

Lim, D. J., & Cooper, Z. (2015). Reassessing hedging: The logic of alignment in east Asia. Security Studies, 24(4), 696–727. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130

Liu, W. han. (2018). Are gold and government bond safe-haven assets? An extremal quantile regression analysis. International Review of Finance. https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12232

Mackay, D. B., & Bliemel, F. (2014). Theil’s Forecast Accuracy Coefficient : A Clarification. Journal of Marketing Research, 10(4), 444–446. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/cc66/033ed3047c1b3d5eb47d85ec52789b36324d.pdf

Miyazaki, T. (2019). Clarifying the response of gold return to financial indicators: An empirical comparative analysis using ordinary least squares, robust and quantile regressions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(1), 33. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm12010033

Moghbelli, H. (2020). Hedging as a business risk protection instrument. 28(2), 551–565. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/13574809.2015.1092378

Rahim, M. A. A., Zahari, S. M., & Shariff, S. S. R. (2016). Impact of univariate error distribution assumption toward multivariate GARCH parameter estimation performance. International Journal of Advances in Soft Computing and Its Applications, 8(1), 1–11.

Robiyanto, R. (2018a). Capital market integration in some ASEAN countries revisited. Jurnal Manajemen, 22(2), 205. https://doi.org/10.24912/jm.v22i2.359

Robiyanto, R. (2018b). Gold VS bonds: What is the safe haven for the Indonesian and Malaysian capital market? Gadjah Mada International Journal of Business, 20(3), 277–302. https://doi.org/10.22146/gamaijb.27775

Robiyanto, Wahyudi, S., & Pangestuti, I. R. D. (2017). Testing commodities as safe haven and hedging instrument on ASEAN’s five stock markets. Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan, 10, 231–238.

Downloads

Published

2021-04-21

How to Cite

Siahaan, G. E. D., & Robiyanto, R. (2021). BOND AS A SAFE HAVEN DURING MARKET CRASH: EXAMINATION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN ASEAN-5. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Kewirausahaan, 23(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.9744/jmk.23.1.1-9

Issue

Section

Articles